Supposition
Without knowledge of why the secrets
behind the loss of Hannibal are so well guarded examination of the
events of the time may suggest a number of theories. So just supposing:-
The aircraft was carrying a top secret assessment
of the British position in the Far East, the Pacific, Malaya (Singapore) and India (loyalty -
terrorist and independence movements). Assessments of Russian intentions toward
Afghanistan, India and (later) Pakistan may have been included. After
turning back to Juwani and transferring Hannibal's passengers to an
Empire C-class flying boat, the passengers on board were collected at
Karachi.(12) (It seems that the urgency to get 'flight CW197's' last passengers
westward would
originate from within India.)
There were still at the time, in Britain, elements of the
government who were interested in negotiating with Germany to join a
pact to defeat communist Russia. Russia was concerned that the Axis powers
would persuade Britain to join them. Germany did not consider itself an enemy
of Britain.(10). The Venlo incident in November
1939 illustrates the confusion caused to the British Secret Intelligence
Service. This may explain to some extent the reluctance of
Britain to act decisively to counter the invasion of the Netherlands
and Belgium. Hence the period of "Phoney War". Any move to
join Germany also required an alliance with Japan and negotiations over
British territories, notably Hong Kong and Singapore. In parallel the
United States had shown it was not interested in further naval
treaties with Japan, turning Japan from an ally to a rival, leaving Britain
weakened in the East.(10). It became essential for Britain to buy an
alliance with expansionist Japan as it was unable to strengthen it's far east forces.
'Hannibal' represented the material presence of
Britain's major strategic
investment of the age. The Empire airmail route to Australia and New
Zealand was the important means (on par with Suez) of communication not only with India
but also the Antipodean Dominions. It is quite plausible that as Britain
felt weakened in the far east, the threat of an already expanding Japanese
military and economic power
became of paramount importance. Britain and Japan had been strong Allies.
Reinstatement of that condition tempered Britain's relations with Japan
throughout the 1930's, as Japan advanced into China. Had Britain negotiated an arrangement with
Japan where, in exchange for uncontested access to the Dutch oil-fields,
tin and rubber in
Indonesia, support against Russia and sovereignty over the former German
Pacific colonies, Britain would be guaranteed commercial
reinstatement in China and the security of India, Burma, Australia, New
Zealand and other Empire territories?(51)
However American interests in China would have been compromised as they
were staunch supporters of the Chiang Kai-shek regime.(53)
In a period when the British chiefs of staff
had called for an avoidance of war until rearmament bore substantial
fruit, Britain was actively persuading the Japanese to withdraw from the
Axis cause. Prime would have been the need to contain the empire defence
commitment, but also to eliminate the threat of a second front for the US
whose industry would save Europe. Knowledge of such a treaty in transit aboard
'Hannibal' would undermine any support from the one essential ally
Britain could hope to secure, then and subsequently.
After a period
of stagnation in the development of long range short wave communication
and the poor state of British cypher security it is likely that important diplomatic traffic was sent by
courier.(9). Imperial Airways offered
the fastest links. Surprisingly, courier security aboard the airline was
reliant on unlocked secret safes and the courier sleeping on the
documents to protect them at stopovers!(52)
It was not until the resignation of Neville Chamberlain
and his replacement by the anti-Nazi Winston Churchill in May 1940 that
this state of indecision was ended.(8). The fall of Holland, Dunkirk and the Battle of
Britain followed Churchill's assumption of power.
So why the need for security to this day?
The revelation that Britain might
have been negotiating with Japan would affect the Anglo-American alliance, even today. Conversely elements of the British government
would want the treachery - at whatever stage - stopped. Thus
subjecting the loss of Hannibal to the 100 year provision of the
Official Secrets Act. As a courier mission the flight's compliment would be
few. That the plane
was reported as coming down in the Gulf of Oman suggests that it was not
found even after an extensive search over land. The British government
continued to assume the contents of the courier bag were safe if they
could not find it. They knew it was well weighted and would not float
to the surface. This kind of thinking was evident after the capture of a
diplomatic bag - containing the reply and code books to the command in Singapore, (telling them there was
little England
could do to bolster the position)- from the Automedon a merchant ship intercepted in the Indian Ocean
in November 1940 by the German commerce raider Atlantis. The captain was under orders to destroy the
courier bag, but was killed by numerous shots that hit the bridge. The
information went to the Japanese and persuaded them to attack Pearl Harbour
first, followed quickly by the fall of Singapore.
After losing the courier aircraft, (carrying an agreement?), the capture of the Automedon
may have compounded
the disaster. Realization by members of the contemporary serving far east forces might cost the British government embarrassment
and outrage, during their lifetime, from those held as POW's by the Japanese.
Should gold bullion have been the cargo, (contrary
to the officially released manifest) the need to
protect its whereabouts would be the principle reason for secrecy. Why
would gold have been on board? Imperial Airways had contracts to transport
it. The future security of the sources in India were not yet under direct
threat by the Japanese. The British Empire need to pay for armaments
from America, the paramount reason to move gold westward. Gold has a plausible role in
the continuing secrecy. Until recovery is made, up to $28m would remain
where it fell. The British Government was in March 1940 running a deficit
equal to its revenue. (approx 998,000,000 pounds) (30)
Until such time as the plane's location is revealed it may be considered Top Secret*
even beyond its
recovery. That there is still little available data on the loss suggests that Hannibal's loss could still cause problems in a
volatile region that came under threat of being subverted by communist
forces in the late 1950's and 1970's.
Any published flight timings can be treated as suspect
in view of the secrecy required, the "wreckage" found off
Ras-al-Kuh a diversion. Interest by enemy units loitering in the area
of Ras-al-Kuh would alert British intelligence to a leak.
Should Hannibal already have been discovered, any
evidence (wreckage) may have been removed to protect the secret that was considered so vital. That the secret is still protected suggests the
diplomatic bag contained far reaching strategic assessments that still affect
British policy in the region.
It was believed in the late1970's that Russia had designs on a
warm water port with access to the Indian Ocean. Thus the Iranian
revolution in 1979, Russia's involvement with Afghanistan, the Iran-Iraq wars,
the subsequent Gulf Wars, the
overthrow of the Taliban and their outcomes along with today's "New
Iron Curtain"(39) positioning
by the US; are all part of the balancing act Britain plays in the region.
Next | Home |
Previous | Links |
|