At maximum speed (128mph) it would take 29 minutes for the aircraft to traverse from the coast at Dibba/Khor Fakkan to Sharjah.
  The last confirmed transmission to Karachi at 09:21 (vs 10:10) was made with continued confidence of their Sharjah ETA.
  An abrupt change of course to land on available land between coast and mountains. Too low for reception of emergency broadcast. A well travelled area. 
  A course reversal to Jask so late in the over water flight would seem improbable.
  A head wind increase, a competent navigator would realize. Capt. Townsend had done so two days earlier.(12) The official report indicates that he was "recalled", however no indication is given as to what stage of the journey this was on the Feb. 26th.(13a)
  Unlikely to have come down on land between mountains and west coast. This is a well travelled region. Sand dunes move relatively slowly.
  Southward course error, after crossing mountains would send aircraft in to the depths of the Rub al Khali. Yet should half hour travel not bring aircraft to the coast at Sharjah, logical then to turn 90deg. right to coast.
  Northward course error, into Arabian Gulf. Crossing west coast in reasonable conditions would prompt navigation correction, to follow coast to Sharjah.
  At least one hour of fuel remained at time of last ETA transmission. i.e. half hour + beyond Sharjah.
  There was no chance for passengers to launch rafts, don life jackets or walk away. 
  If onboard sabotage, then assumes reasonable recovery of  'loot' and protagonist, close to east coast, from mountains by foreign power.  
  When a Caravelle crashed in the mountains of the Musandam, a suitcase from the flight was found in a local souk months later. The difficulty of removing debris from mountainous areas is understood as this particular catastrophic crash site is still visible many years later.  Impoverished local population indifferent to distress. This was a pirate coast. An area hostile perhaps even to British forces in 1940. Gunboat diplomacy was used against the coastal population as late as 1930.(7)  
  It seems there was reluctance to enter upon the tribal area of the Musandam by ‘foreigners’. A fiercely independent tribe, the Shihuh were reputed to remove the testicles of ‘white men’. Thus it was that aircrew were taught certain customs to use if captured, and carried ‘chits’ for their safe return. (42) (47)   This might have dampened the enthusiasm of searchers to explore the peninsula. This reputation continued. Although loyal to the Sultan of Muscat, Oman, it was not until the 1970’s that the regions strategic significance caused Omani forces to be garrisoned there.(49)  
  Imperial Airways had secured a contract to move gold bullion between Africa and India which brought it to market three weeks earlier. (2)  Two tons would be within the load limits of an HP42. Whether gold was still being moved in this way remains to be answered. 
  In light of the developing American civil aviation industry and advanced monoplanes such as the DC3, it may be that Imperial Airways were expecting replacements for what was for the time a very long lived airframe design. Consequently maintenance short cuts were part of the politics of an aviation industry that was heavily subsidized by the British government. During the late 1930's the British government were involved in developing new aircraft for the civil airlines. At the outbreak of war in 1939 development of the Fairey FC1 and Short S.32 were unceremoniously cut short. (35)

Next | Home | Previous | Links |