Meteorology
 

 'Hannibal' had encountered strong headwinds as CW196 on 26 Feb. The weather recorded on  1 March is described as "not unusual , with surface winds of 10 to 20 mph, southwest to west". (12)  This is consistent with the estimates of ground speed from the radio log. Modern understanding of meteorology in the region suggests this to be normal.  Where this record was made is to be determined.  It seems consistent with Sharjah and local variations encountered enroute may have been different.

 
Other conditions may be encountered as follows.
 
Generally winds in the Gulf region blow NW to SE as a result of a stationary high pressure cell over the Arabian peninsula and a low pressure cell over the Zagros mountains of Persia.  This is affected seasonally by the Indian monsoon.
Associated with these winds is the Shamal (north) or dust storm. Even if the winds are insignificant on a particular day any dust raised by previous wind events will remain in the atmosphere for extended periods. Predominantly a Summer occurrence Shamals are recorded earlier in the year. 
 "Most of the Eastern Emirates escape this as the wind funnels the dust and sand into the Empty Quarter. There are occasions, though, when the High Cell over Saudi Arabia and the Zagros Lee Low extends over a majority of the UAE and dust haze is brought over the entire region for a short time. When the cells migrate back to their normal positions the winds rapidly decrease; then the haze remains in situ and the strong thermal heating causes (the dust haze) to linger in a blanket over the country for days at a time, with visibilities remaining at around 5000 to 3000 m for most of the time, reducing to below 1500 m on occasions." Dust haze can be observed to altitudes of 12000ft.  (22)  Dust plumes are observed extending over the Gulf of Oman also.
 
Sea and land breezes are the main circulations in the Arabian Gulf that affect the meteorology of the region. They develop due to strong heating of the land and weak large scale winds. 23) 
 
"Although fog is most common in winter months it is not unknown during the 'spring' or early 'autumn'. This type is advection fog, when air of high dew point over the sea is carried over the cooler land. As the moist air moves landwards, it is forced to rise over the denser desert air. Such blankets of fog may penetrate inland for many miles." 24)  This fog has been observed as very dense (less than 50m visibility) but usually has 'burned" off by mid morning. Wind and daytime heating remove the effect but wind alone may not disperse fog. The northern coast of Oman is not affected as a consequence of the prevailing wind.
 
The effect of warm moist air impacting the Hajar Mountains of the Musandam Peninsula is known to cause convection cloud formation that can lead to violent thunderstorms over  the area. These do not always produce rainfall but would cause a significant hazard to aviation.  Electrical activity may affect radio performance.
 
Assuming the aircraft landed in the sea and was able to float or otherwise launch buoyant craft, any search of the area would need to understand the currents and movements of the Gulf of Oman. Understood in recent times are counterclockwise circulating surface currents moving at around 1.5mph. (0.7m/s)
 
As will be noted these effects are generally more significant to the west of the Hajar mountains. 'Hannibal' was due to transit from the east coast of the Hajar mountains to Sharjah between 12.05 and 13.35.
 
Of interest are the instructions from the "Air Route Book" issued to Imperial pilots. 'Leaving Sharjah the track strikes east across undulating light coloured desert. In bad visibility aircraft should commence to climb as 70 miles ahead mountains 20 miles to the north of the track rise abruptly to 6000ft.. The desert changes to red sand and darker sand crossed by the courses of waterways before the mountains are crossed. In doubtful visibility no attempt should be made to cross at less than 8000ft. The track crosses the coast just north of a very distinctive well mapped bay. Every effort must be made to check ground speed in order to ensure an accurate ETA for land fall on the Persian coast.' 25) 
A description of flying in the Musandam noted, "This was often in rough conditions when there were thunderstorms, or downdrafts and curlovers as strong winds tumbled over the mountains."  (41)

A description of the meteorological hazards of flying from a correspondent who was based at Sharjah flying Blenheims. (1943)

"Gordon was a top navigator, something I had to be thankful for over the years we flew together. Nobody's perfect and this was early days. A wind that came from inland with sufficient strength whipped up dust, which, unlike the coarser sand in the Western Desert, was almost as fine as talcum powder. We'd stayed with a convoy until it was about to enter the Strait of Hormuz, entrance to the Gulf. There was dust, but not too thick. Instead of climbing I decided to ask Gordon for a course that would take us into the Gulf clear of the cliffs and a second for where we'd turn left back to Sharjah. I settled on the first and, when he told me turned onto the second. The dust had thickened somewhat. Suddenly, dead ahead and close, through a hole in it a black cliff loomed. I threw the Blenheim onto its side, ramming the throttles wide and hauled on the controls. Several thousand feet of black cliff swept by about near enough to touch. Too damn close. We never did that again. If there was dust we went home over the top. One of my lives down the drain." (42)
 

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Richard Hobby, 2002 - 8. ( This page is a collation of information from various sources, please address any concerns about source and accreditation to page author )